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Thoughts from the Frontline Weekly Newsletter The Glide Path Option
by John Mauldin November 6, 2009 |
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The present contains all possible futures. But not all futures are good ones. Some can be quite cruel. The one we actually get is dictated by the choices we make. For the last few months I have been addressing the choices in front of us, economically speaking. Today I am going to summarize them, and maybe we can look for some signposts that will tell us which path we're headed down. For those who are new readers and who would like a more in-depth analysis, you can go to the archives at www.2000wave.com and search for terms I am writing about. And I will start out by briefly touching on today's ugly unemployment numbers, with data you did not get in the mainstream media. But first, let me welcome the readers of EQUITIES Magazine to this letter. The publisher is sending the letter to you directly. This letter is free, and all you have to do to continue receiving it is type in your email address at www.2000wave.com. Likewise, I have arranged for my regular readers to get a free subscription to EQUITIES Magazine, if you would like. You can go to www.equitiesmagazine.com. For those who don't know, I write a brief monthly column for them. The Ugly Unemployment NumbersThe headlines said unemployment, as measured by the "establishment survey," was down by 190,000; and even though that was slightly worse than forecast, market bulls were cheered by the fact that the number was not as bad as last month's. It is an improvement that we are not falling as fast. Well, maybe. What I did not see in many of the stories I read was that the number of unemployed actually soared by 558,000, to 15.7 million, as measured by the household survey. The establishment survey polls larger businesses; the household survey actually calls individual households. Let's look at the real number in the establishment survey. If you don't seasonally adjust the number, the actual change in unemployment for October was 641,000, or about 450,000 more than the seasonally adjusted number. And the Bureau of Labor Statistics added 86,000 jobs that they simply guess were created through the so-called birth-death ratio. Interestingly, the birth-death ratio number is not seasonally adjusted, so it is just added to the unemployment number. http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm The total (U-6) employment rate is at a record high of 17.5% (this includes those who are part-time for economic reasons). There are now over 10.5 million people who have lost their jobs since the beginning of the downturn. My favorite slicer and dicer of data, Greg Weldon (www.weldononline.com), offers up an even more horrific number. As I have noted before, if you have not looked for work in the last four weeks, the BLS does not count you as unemployed. Quoting Greg: "Moreover, when we combine the monthly change in the number of Unemployed, with the number Not in the Labor Force, we might consider the result to be a proxy for the actual 'change' in the underlying labor market situation ... in which case, October's figure of 817,000 represents the fourth LARGEST yet, behind last month's (September's) second largest figure of 1,021,000 ... for a two-month combined figure of 1.838 million, in newly Unemployed, or no longer 'in' the Labor Force ... "... the second LARGEST two-month total EVER posted, barely trailing the December-08/January-09 total 1.955 million. "Bottom line ... basis this measure AND the 'Total Unemployment Rate,' we could conclude that not only is there NO 'improvement' in the labor market, but moreover, that it continues to DETERIORATE, intently." There are plenty more implications in the data, but let's turn to the topic of the day. The Present Contains All Possible FuturesLike teenagers, we as a US polity have made a number of bad choices over the past decade. We allowed banks to overleverage and, in the case of AIG (and others), sell what were essentially naked call options of credit default swaps, based on their firm balance sheets, far in excess of their net worth; and that put our entire financial system at risk. We gave mortgages to people who could not pay them, and did so in such large amounts that we again brought down the entire world financial system to the point that only with staggering amounts of taxpayer money was it brought back from the brink of Armageddon. We assumed that home prices were not in a bubble but were a permanent fixture of ever-rising value, and we borrowed against our homes to finance what seemed like the perfect lifestyle. We did not regulate the mortgage markets. We ran large and growing government deficits. We did not save enough. We allowed rating agencies to degrade their ratings to a point where they no longer meant anything. The list is much longer, but you get the idea. Now, we are faced with a continuing crisis and the aftermath of multiple bubbles bursting. We are left with a massive government deficit and growing public debt, record unemployment, and consumers who are desperately trying to repair their balance sheets. If present trends are left unchecked, we will need to find $15 trillion in the next ten years, just to pay for US government debt, let alone state, county, and city debt. And perhaps some loans for business will be needed? Where can all this money come from? The answer is that it can't be found. Long before we get to 2019 there will be an upheaval in the market, forcing what could be unpleasant changes. We are left with no good choices, only bad ones. We have created a situation that is going to cause a lot of pain. It is not a question of pain or no pain, it is just when and how we decide (or are forced) to take it. There are no easy paths, but some bad choices are less bad than others. So, let's review some of the choices we can make. (Again, I am being very general here. You can go to the archives for more specifics. This is a summary letter.) Argentinian DiseaseOne way to deal with the deficit is to do what Argentina and other countries have done: simply print the money needed to cover the deficits. Of course, that eventually means hyperinflation and the collapse of the currency and all debt. There are writers who think this is an inevitable outcome. How else, they ask, can we deal with the debt? Where is the political willpower? One large hedge-fund manager in Brazil humorously remarked that Argentina is a binomial country. When faced with two choices (hence binomial) they always made the bad choice. Could it happen here? Hyperinflation is not an economic event; it is a political choice. I think last Tuesday's election is a sign that the voter population is beginning to pay attention to the need for something more than talk of change. There is growing discomfort with the size of the deficits. Further, the Fed would have to cooperate in order for there to be hyperinflation, and I think there is only a very slight (as in almost zero) chance of that happening. Could Congress change the rules and take over the Fed? Anything's possible, but I seriously doubt there is any appetite in saner Democratic circles for such a thing to happen. I think the chances of hyperinflation in the US are quite low. It would be the worst of all possible bad choices. The Austrian SolutionHere I refer to the Austrian school of economic theory, based on the work of Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek, et al. There are those in the Austrian camp who argue the need to do away with the Fed, return to the gold standard, allow the banks that are now deemed too big to fail to go ahead and fail, along with any businesses that are also mismanaged (such as GM and Chrysler), and leave the high ground to new and more properly run. In their model, government spending is slashed to the bone, as are (in most cases) taxes. The advantage is that, in theory, you get all your pain at once and then can begin to recover from what would be a very bad and deep recession. The bad news is that you risk getting 30% unemployment and another depression that could take a very long time to climb out of. Now, let me say that I have GREATLY simplified their argument. If you want to learn more you can go to www.mises.org. It is an excellent web site for all things Austrian. While I am not Austrian, I have spent a lot of time reading the literature and have certain sympathies for this view. That being said, this also has almost no chance of being implemented. In Congress, only my friend Ron Paul is its advocate. Most Austrian followers are Libertarian by nature, and that is just not a political reality for the coming decade. The Eastern European SolutionAs it turned out, Niall Ferguson (last week I wrote about his brilliant book, The Ascent of Money) was in Dallas last night, and I was graciously invited to hear him. He gave a great speech and signed books, and then we went to a local bar and proceeded to solve the world's problems over Scotch (Niall) and tequila (me), and went farther into the night than we originally intended. He's a very fun and knowledgeable guy. As we were talking about possible paths, he brought one to mind that I hadn't thought of. He reminded me of the period after the fall of the Berlin Wall, as the nations of Eastern Europe broke from the former Soviet Union. They started with very weak economies and simply overhauled their entire governments and economies in a rather short period of time, though not in lockstep with one another. Privatization, lowered taxes, etc. were the order of the day. We here in the US are always talking about the need for reform. We need to reform health care or education or energy. In Eastern Europe they did not reform in the sense that we use the word. In many cases they simply started from scratch and built new systems. They had the advantage that there was general agreement that things did not work the way they had been, so there was more room for change. Today in the US there are large constituencies that resist change. We only get to tinker around the edges, when real structural change is needed. Sadly, we agreed that here there is not much chance of major change. We can't even get the obvious changes needed in the financial regulatory world. Sidebar: I am outraged at the paltry proposed financial "reforms." Rahm Emanuel said that no crisis should be allowed to go to waste. The Obama administration is wasting this one. How can we allow banks to be too big to fail? Where is the reinstatement of Glass-Steagall? If we are going to allow large banks to exist, then their leverage must be reduced to the point where their failure would not risk the system and require taxpayer dollars. I don't care if that makes them less profitable. They are making those large profits because they have taxpayers implicitly behind them, and I get no dividend payments from them, the last time I checked. Where is Fannie and Freddie reform (and their breakup)? No mention of an exchange for credit default swaps? (And yes, I know that such an exchange would reduce the number of swaps and the profitability of them. That is the point. They are dangerous if allowed to become too big a market.) This bill reads as if bank lobbyists wrote it. Where is the populist outrage? We have let the fox set up the rules for running the hen house. Shame on us all if we allow this to happen. Japanese DiseaseI have written a lot over the past year about the problems facing Japan. Their population is shrinking, as is their work force. They are running massive fiscal deficits and have done so for almost 20 years. Government debt-to-GDP is now up to 178% and projected to rise to over 200% within a few years. They started their "lost decades" with a savings rate of almost 16%, and are now down to 2% as their aging population spends its savings in retirement. They have had no new job creation for 20 years, and nominal GDP is where it was 17 years ago. As bad as our problems are here in the US, their bubble was far more massive. Values of commercial property fell 87%! Their stock market is still down 70%. They had twice as much bank leverage to GDP as the US. (Think about how bad off we would be if bank lending was twice as large and had even worse defaults and capital shortfalls!) And yet, they Muddle Through. Productivity has kept their standard of living reasonable. Up until recently their exports were strong. The trading floors of the world are littered with the bodies of traders who have shorted Japanese government debt in the belief that it simply must implode. While I believe that it eventually will, if they stay on the path they are on, Japan is a very clear demonstration that things that don't make sense can go on longer than we think. Richard Koo (chief economist of Nomura Securities, in Tokyo) argues passionately that Japan had a balance-sheet recession, and that the only way for Japan to fight it was to run massive deficits. Banks were not lending and businesses were not borrowing, as both groups were trying to repair their balance sheets, which were savaged by the bursting of the bubble. It is said that at one time the value of the land on which the Emperor's Palace sits in Tokyo was worth more than all of California. Clearly this was a bubble that puts our housing bubble to shame. So, I understand the point that there are differences between Japan and the US . But there are also similarities. We too have had a balance sheet recession, although here it was mostly individuals and financial institutions that have had to retrench and repair their balance sheets. Japan elected to run large deficits and raise taxes. As I wrote in the October 16th letter (http://www.2000wave.com/article.asp?id=mwo101609), "Savings equal Investments: GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is defined as Consumption (C) plus Investment (I) plus Government Spending (G) plus [Exports (E) minus Imports (I)] or: GDP = C + I + G + (E-I) I don't want to go on at length again, but basically, the literature I quoted suggests that government stimulus and deficits have no long-run positive effect on GDP. In fact, the work done by Christina Romer, Obama's chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, shows that tax cuts have a three-times-greater positive effect on GDP, and tax increases have the same level of negative effect. In the equation above, if you increase government spending it will have a positive effect in the short run on GDP, but not in the long run. In essence, the increase in "G" must be made up by savings from consumers and businesses and foreigners. But "G" does not enhance overall productivity. Government spending may be necessary but it is not especially productive. You increase productivity when private businesses invest and create jobs and products. But if government soaks up the investment capital, there is less for private business. And that is Japanese disease. You run large deficits, sucking the air out of the room, and you raise taxes, taking the money from productive businesses and reducing the ability of consumers to save. Then you go for 20 years with little or no economic or job growth. This is the path we currently seem to be on. The Japanese experience says that it could last a lot longer than people think before we hit the wall; because if savings rise in the US, and if banks, instead of lending, put that money on deposit with the Fed, as they are now doing (in order to repair their balance sheets), the US could run large deficits for longer than most observers currently believe. We will need 15-18 million new jobs in the next five years, just to get back to where we were only a few years ago. Without the creation of whole new industries, that is not going to happen. Nearly 20% of Americans are not paying anywhere close to the amount of taxes they paid a few years ago, and at least ten million are now collecting some kind of unemployment benefits or welfare. Choosing large deficits does not reduce the amount of pain we will experience, it just seemingly reduces it in the short term and creates the potential for a serious economic upheaval when the bond market finally decides to opt for higher rates. This path is a bad choice, but sadly, in reality it is one we could take. The Glide Path OptionA glide path is the final path followed by an aircraft as it is landing. We need to establish a glide path to sustainable deficits (could we dream of surpluses?). That is because at some point there will be recognition, either proactively or forced upon us by the bond market, that large deficits are unsustainable in the long term. If Congress and the president decided to lay out a real (and credible) plan to reduce the deficit over time, say 5-6 years, to where it was less than nominal GDP, the bond market would (I think) behave. Reducing deficits by $150 billion a year through a combination of cuts in growth and spending would get us there in five years. The problem is that there is real pain associated with this option. Remember that equation above. Absent a growing private sector, if you reduce "G" (government spending) you also reduce GDP in the short run. You have to take some pain today in order to do that. But you avoid worse pain down the road: a bubble of massive federal debt that has to be serviced will be very painful when it blows up, as all bubbles do. The Glide Path Option means that structural unemployment is going to be higher than we like (which is actually the case with all the options). And the large tax increases that come with this option will by their very nature be a drag on growth (and cause a double-dip recession in 2011). We can debate tax increases all we want, but I sadly think we will soon have a VAT tax. There are no good options. I just hope that we cut corporate taxes enough when we do create a VAT, that it will make our corporations more competitive, which will be a boost for jobs. That's pretty much it. This is not a problem we can grow ourselves out of in the next few years. We have simply dug ourselves into a huge hole. This is not a normal recession. There is not a "V" ending to this recession. We are going to have deal with the pain. It will be the pain of reduced returns on traditional stock market investments, a lower dollar, low returns on bonds, European-like unemployment, lower corporate profits over the long term, and a very slow-growth environment. But if we choose this path, we will get through it in the fullness of time. And of course, then we will eventually have to deal with the $70 trillion in our off-balance-sheet liabilities in Medicare and Social Security and pensions. Sigh. But that's for another time. Philadelphia, Orlando, and PhoenixI really am more optimistic than this letter makes me seem. But if you ignore reality, then you have no chance to figure out how to make the best of your situation. It is the efforts of hundreds of millions of individuals trying to make their own lot a little better than will get us back to a robust economy. Monday I fly to Philadelphia and then the next day to Orlando for two speeches, and then the following week a quick trip to Phoenix, then home to start to plan for Thanksgiving. I will be in New York the first weekend of December (the 4th) for Festivus, a great fundraiser for kids sponsored by Todd Harrison and the team at Minyanville (http://www.rpfoundation.org/), Interestingly, they hold it every year at a "Texas" barbecue joint. Look me up if you are there. Tiffani has been out the last two days of this week. She is due in seven weeks or less, and her hips are expanding. The pain is too much right now for her to walk up the stairs to the office, so she is working from home. The doctor says this is the one time that her pain is not a sign of something bad. She is being a trooper and not taking any pain meds. It has been 30 years since I was around a pregnant lady for more than a few hours, and it does bring back some memories. Watching her grow and change has brought back the sense of awe over how our bodies are designed. Ryan and Tiffani have decided on the name Lively for my first granddaughter, to add to the two new grandsons this year. From zero to three grandkids in just six months! Kind of makes me dizzy. I really enjoyed my time in South America. Rio is quite beautiful and I want to go back and spend some time. Have a great week. There will be enough good friends and family that I know I will. And tomorrow night I finally get to go to a Dallas Mavericks game. We may have a real team this year. Your always optimistic at the beginning of the season analyst, John MauldinJohn@FrontLineThoughts.com Copyright 2009 John Mauldin. All Rights Reserved Note: The generic Accredited Investor E-letters are not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of John Mauldin and Millennium Wave Investments. It is intended solely for accredited investors who have registered with Millennium Wave Investments and Altegris Investments at www.accreditedinvestor.ws or directly related websites and have been so registered for no less than 30 days. The Accredited Investor E-Letter is provided on a confidential basis, and subscribers to the Accredited Investor E-Letter are not to send this letter to anyone other than their professional investment counselors. Investors should discuss any investment with their personal investment counsel. John Mauldin is the President of Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC (MWA), which is an investment advisory firm registered with multiple states. John Mauldin is a registered representative of Millennium Wave Securities, LLC, (MWS), an FINRA registered broker-dealer. MWS is also a Commodity Pool Operator (CPO) and a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) registered with the CFTC, as well as an Introducing Broker (IB). Millennium Wave Investments is a dba of MWA LLC and MWS LLC. Millennium Wave Investments cooperates in the consulting on and marketing of private investment offerings with other independent firms such as Altegris Investments; Absolute Return Partners, LLP; Fynn Capital; Nicola Wealth Management; and Plexus Asset Management. Funds recommended by Mauldin may pay a portion of their fees to these independent firms, who will share 1/3 of those fees with MWS and thus with Mauldin. Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest with any CTA, fund, or program mentioned here or elsewhere. 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Вот мы и очутились у двери ее квартиры. Она нас встретила в облегающем сереньком халатике , с мокрыми волосами , с недовольным лицом, проворчав , что она только–что из ванны. Растерянно переглянувшись, мы сказали, что пойдем тогда домой., но она возразила сказав, что раз пришли, так проходите куда теперь идти. Дома родителей не оказалось, они уехали на дачу. Поэтому мы чувствовали себя очень вольготно . На некоторое время она ушла от нас в свою комнату. “Наверное переодевается”,- мелькнуло у меня в голове . Она опять вышла в своем приталенном халате, вырез которого приятно подчеркивал ее тонкую белоснежную шею, от нее приятно пахло сладкими духами. Вскоре мы уселись за стол . Она поставила на м фужеры для вина, в этот момент я не удержался , чтобы не посмотреть на вырез ,который открывал ее груди , когда она подалась вперед. Но ,к сожалению, черный кружевной лифчик скрывал от меня ее не очень большую , но упругую грудь. Сколько я мечтал о том, чтобы прикоснуться , поцеловать, ласкать эту грудь, чувство возбуждения охватывало меня , увеличиваясь по мере выпиваемого вина . Мы вели какие- то дурацкие разговоры, попивая вино, смотрели какаю- то тупую комедию , но я все это время буквально пожирал ее , смотря на ее лодыжки , или случайно оголявшиеся коленки , я мечтал целовать ее, покусывать ласково ее ушки, наконец, овладеть ею всей , отдав всю страсть которая во мне накопилась за эти годы, что я даже немного испугался этого желания. Постепенно время подошло к двенадцати и она начала намекать , что нам пора бы домой, видите ли ей завтра надо рано вставать. Попрощавшись мы ушли от нее ,перед подъездом я попрощался с Красотка фото в свою сторону домой, темные краски ночи расплылись во все уголки, принося с собой волны прохлады и тишины. Но по пути я не мог забыть ее соблазнительный вид, не мог забыть ее взгляд, не мог остыть, ведь она же была так близко, что я даже чувствовал аромат духов ,тепло ее тела, ее прохладное дыхание. Что – то во мне перевернулось, я вспомнил все мои прошлые неудачи и обиды, связанные с ней , понял , как много уже потерял. Так я очутился опять у ее двери. Все мое тело дрожало от ожидания и волнения, сердце билось, буквально готовое разорваться. Вот я звоню , Наташа удивленно смотрит на меня, открыв дверь, я же говорю , что забыл у нее свои солнечные очки. Она меня впускает… Судорожно иду на кухню, делаю вид, что ищу очки ,она помогает мне искать . Вскоре просто говорю : - -Я пришел не за очками ,-внимательно смотрю на нее . А за чем же ?- наивно искоса смотря на меня, спросила она. Кошечки просто хочу тебя. Она вспыхнула , гневно закричала , чтобы я убирался прочь , но это на меня не подействовало. Пойдя к ней поближе я хотел взять ее за талию, она отстранилась, дав мне солидную пощечину, перехватив ее правую рук и зажав левую, я подался к ней вплотную , она же начала ожесточено брыкаться ,орать на меня , что я подлый и все в этом роде, потом начала вырваться, и ей это удалось. Далее ,помню, она побежала в зал к телефону , с намерением вызвать милицию. Я ее нагнал , просто взял и повалил на пол. Тут началась схватка, прям как у борцов в партере , она сопротивлялась, царапалась, визжала , как бешенные мы катались в клубке с ней по полу. Халат с нее уже я давно откинул в сторону. Я видел ее аккуратный рельефный животик, стройные ноги, руками я с терском разорвал ее лифчик, моя правая рука лезла с большей настойчивостью в ее шелковые трусики , нащупывая постепенно ее киску. Тепло от ее грудей, от ее тела, предавалось мне ,заводя меня еще больше. Спонтанно начав раздеваться , я превысил, наверное, все армейские нормативы, только по раздеванию. Она все еще сопротивлялась одаривая меня ударами своих маленьких кулаков, кусаясь и матерясь , хотя пальцами правой руки я безраздельно властвовал внизу ее живота. Окончательно впав в какой то животный экстаз, я прохрипел , что по – любому ее трахну сегодня, как бы он не сопротивлялась и знаю, что она хочет того же. Мощно взяв ее за талию, я швырнул Наталью на кровать. Поставив на коленки, пригнув ее голову к кровати, Жесткое порно лисби за ее мягкие волосы, повелительно сказал : “Сучка опирайся на руки”. Со всего размаху я ввел свой раскаленный от возбуждения член в ее влагалище, к моему удивлению оно уже было все мокрое, теплое , хлюпая в такт мне , когда я делал мощные толчки, изогнувшись, я начал теребить ее соски , то оттягивая их, то поглаживая. Вначале она все еще пыталась сопротивляться, подавая таз в разные стороны, но я начинал сильнее дергать ее гриву, и ,как покорная лошадь, она успокаивалась , Вскоре она начала издавать стоны в такт моим движениям, я же начал еще сильнее долбить ее пещерку, словно расширяя ее вглубь, я стучал членом ее стенки влагалища, нервно сжимал ее упругие ягодицы, потом опять брал за талию все сильнее потягивая ее на себя. Через некоторое время она сама начала остервенело идти на встречу моим движениям, сопровождая их сладострастным стоном. Потом она начала извиваться , еще немного прогнувшись, она обхватила меня за мои ягодицы и хрипло попросила , чтобы я трахал еще сильнее ,и стала плотнее прижимать меня к себе, через минуты две она затряслась судорожно продолжая движения, после чего затихла испустив глубокий грудной стон .я же продолжил уже не в том бешенном ритме свои движения. Через пару минут я кончил ей во влагалище , сперма ,смешавшись с ее соками, выливалась из влагалища. Помню ее лицо- оно было озарено улыбкой, восторгом и повиновением одновременно. Она сказала: “ Ты первый кто меня так смог завести , я никогда не получала оргазма, поэтому я боялась близости с парнями, а была просто обычной лесбиянкой, только с девушками я могла нормально наслаждаться любовью”. Немного полежав, я приказал , чтобы она ложилась на спину. В этот момент она была сама покорность. Я начал долго рассматривать ее уголки тела : просто смотреть на ее разбухшие половые губки, возбужденные груди. Слившись с ней в одном страстном поцелуе , я стал покрывать ее тело бесчисленными поцелуями , которыми хотел одарить ее за все эти годы, она же мурлыкала в ответ, закрыв глаза, поглаживая руками мой затылок, потом я начал полизывать и целовать ее нижние губы , наяривая словно карамель ее сокровенную кнопочку, которая начала от этого сильнее пульсировать, передавая возбуждение дальше всему телу. Ее соки обильно опять начали истекать, я жадно их глотал , пытаясь выцедить ее всю, она же опять стонала откинувшись полностью, с закрытыми глазам судорожно поправляя волосы и глотая воздух . Теперь я поднял ее левую ногу себе на плечо ,праву немного отставил в сторону , ввел член в ее жаркое лоно. Начав убыстрять темп, я будто хотел тогда всю ее , чтобы она услышала всем своим существом мои вибрации ,ее груди прыгали в такт моим движениям, увеличившиеся соски буквально завораживали меня , вскоре мы опять бурно кончили.
With 87% of the votes in, 53% voted "Yes" on Question One, while only 47% voted "No". A very close vote, to say the least. Which, to me, shows that not all Mainers are against equality for all Maine Citizens.
No doubt we will have to rehash this again in another couple of years. As those who believe in equality here in Maine won't rest until Gay Couples are given the same equality under the law as Straight Couples.
The rest of the Initiatives on the ballot were as follows:
Question's Two(excise tax) and Four(Taxpayer Bill of Rights - TABOR) were defeated.
Question Three(repeal of the school consolidation law) rejected.
Question Five(Medical Marijuana Law) passed.
Question Six(Transportation Bond) passed.
Question Seven(to change the State Constitution) defeated.
And there we go. That is how Maine voted this year. Some of the results I'm happy about, others I'm not, but that's how it works. The people of Maine spoke with their votes, and that is the end of it - at least until the next Election.
Until next time...
-Wil
COOL!
I know what I'm going to go see over the Christmas holiday!
The early 21st century stands as a period of profound moral confusion. On the one hand, mothers and doctors are permitted to crack upon the skulls and suck out the brains of nearly-born babies with government sanction under the banner of partial birth abortion. Should these very same people hike into the woods and crack open a bald eagle egg, they could face serious prison time.
It would therefore seem that contemporary society is marked by two seemingly contradictory extremes --- that of extreme license and that of excessive control. However, upon closer inspection it could be concluded that these conditions are not as contradictory as the situation might originally appear. Rather, it would seem each is the result of the systematic removal of the ethical balance provided within the Judeo-Christian tradition with its emphasis upon transcendent standards provided by an infinitely just and loving God.
With the increasing complexity of knowledge and technology, those trained in the acquisition and use of this complex body of thought (those broadly referred to as “intellectuals”) have taken on increased levels of influence and responsibility throughout society. No longer does agriculture or manufacturing dominate society to the degree it once did.
Futurists from Alvin Toffler to Newt Gingrich have characterized the current sociological epoch as information-based, with those manipulating this information from government bureaucrats to Hollywood producers exercising unfathomable power over the composition of the contemporary mind. Therefore, it must be remembered, as Lord Acton is believed to have said, “Absolute power corrupts absolutely.”
Through a historical process too complicated to detail to a significant degree in this brief analysis, the prevailing secular elite came to see the world around them and their own assorted intellectual systems as satisfactory explanations in and of themselves for the reality in which these thinkers found themselves. According to Phillip Johnson in “Reason In The Balance”, this way of viewing the world prevalent among the most influential intellectuals is naturalism. Naturalism is the idea that the material reality constitutes the totality of existence and the idea of God is merely a mental construct promulgated in an attempt to cope with the stark realities of the universe in which man finds himself (7).
The average person might naturally conclude that naturalism by its nature would confine itself to the issues of blunt observable scientific fact. However, naturalism has left the tedium of the laboratory and now seeks to influence fields as divergent from science as education, ethics, and government. It is through this set of paradigms embracing the present material reality as the highest criteria of judgment that the twin siblings of chaos and tyranny have become so prevalent throughout world society.
No matter what the secular elites call their particular systems or what concerns these systems emphasize, it is the goal of the secular elite to remake man in the image of the prevailing secular elite. According to Alister McGrath in “Intellectuals Don’t Need God & Other Modern Myths”, prominent ideologies competing for the minds of men include Enlightenment rationalism, Marxism, and scientific materialism (160).
Despite the shades of difference between each of these systems, at their core each shares the assumption that man is bound by no eternal standard beyond this reality and can be remade into whatever the powers that be see fit. It is from this effort to remake the fundamental nature of man that the sorrow of anarchy and tyranny flow.
Bound by certain God-ordained limits regarding behavioral standards and human relationships, man can expect nothing but heartache should he decide to ignore these warnings. However, those seeking to craft a cultural ethos standing apart from the moral will of God regularly ignore these moral stoplights like newly-licensed teenagers barreling down the Las Vegas strip.
Proponents of modernism originally hypothesized that man could retain a high degree of morality without reference to all that theological superstition. Yet without a clear theological reference by which to measure, the actions of man degenerate into the depths of unfathomable evil.
According to Norman Geisler in “Introduction To Philosophy: A Christian Perspective”, when man looks to himself as the source of right and wrong, the result is existential subjectivism and relativism where each person becomes a law unto themselves (404).
And while modernism attempted to maintain the illusion of objective standards apart from the revelation of God, the logical conclusion of such atheistic thinking --- postmodernism --- holds to no such delusions. In fact, political radical and literary critic Michel Foulcalt has stated there are no facts (though this assertion is itself stated as a fact) and his fellow travelers down the deconstructionist superhighway literally fancy themselves as “assassins of objectivity” according to Lynne Cheney in “Telling The Truth: Why Our Culture & Country Have Stopped Making Sense & What We Can Do About It” (91).
Such sentiments possess ramifications beyond settling the issue of whether or not hemlines will be low or high for the coming year. Such ideas determine the very shape and composition of human society and relationships.
This is particularly evident on college campuses where these kinds of ideas enjoy free reign having the status of orthodoxy and where no one bats an eye with anarchy and tyranny walking together hand in hand. For example, Dinesh D’Souza points out in “Illiberal Education : The Politics Of Race & Sex On Campus” that many college campuses distribute condoms and support the vilest profanity as art yet advocate a radical form of feminism just about branding traditional forms of sex as rape and enforce speech codes so broad as to punish “misdirected laughter” and “exclusion from conversation” (238).
Furthermore, much of twentieth and twenty-first history has been a running commentary on the chaos and tyranny that result from attempting to undermine the insoluble union between morality and divinity. The former Soviet Union perhaps stands as the primary example of this kind of experiment where in an attempt to better himself man turns his back on God and reaps the consequences in abundance. That particular society experienced bloodshed and misery rarely repeated in human history except perhaps in its sister dictatorships of Nazi Germany and Maoist China.
Without an objective standard as provided by the moral revelation of God, the state as embodied by the Communist Party was free to do as it pleased such as changing the law at the drop of a hat and then violate the law when it suited without any degree of institutional recourse available to the Soviet people. In his monumental Understanding The Times, David Noebel quotes a Communist functionary who said, "There is no God, no hereafter, no punishment for evil. We can do as we wish. I thank God, in whom I don't believe, that I have lived to this hour when I can express all of this evil in my heart (104). Few Evangelical thinkers have been able to express the moral dangers of atheism in a more succinct manner.
Standing in marked opposition to atheism and its law of the jungle and inherent antinomianism is belief in God and the corollaries of morality flowing from God's existence. From the heartaches and confusion mentioned previously in this exposition, it is evident that mankind is incapable of establishing a satisfactory moral system of his own accord.
Instead, man must be provided one by an objective outside source yet one familiar with the conditions under which man is capable of thriving. Furthermore, it is only through God as revealed in Scripture that one is even justified in speaking of morality in the first place.
Try as he might, C.S. Lewis points out in "Mere Christianity", man cannot escape the encompassing embrace or rebuke of morality. For even in the attempt to flee from its more traditional formulations, one must invoke the structure of its dialogue in order to appeal to a competing set of standards (3).
For example, D. James Kennedy points out in "Character & Destiny: A Nation In Search Of Its Soul" that tolerance is the last virtue of an immoral society since this moral principle in invoked to cover over a plethora of popular abominations ranging from pornography to abortion to sodomy (78). The issue is not so much that man will live without some degree of morality, but rather by whose standards will man live and the consequences resulting from such decisions.
Westminster Seminary Professor John Frame elaborates in "Apologetics To The Glory Of God" that, in order to exist as objective standards beyond the level of subjective sentiments, morals must stem from an absolute source; and since these principles govern personable entities, they must exude from an absolute ultimate personality (100). If morality exists in a transcendent source apart from man in God, morality is granted a degree of liberation from the murky fog of subjectivism yet is accessible to man and can be said to exist in all situations even if finite man refused to disentangle himself from the passion of the moment to view these conundrums from the crisp peaks of objective detachment.
Since these divinely legislated standards stem from God, they exist as part of the underlying fabric of the universe. Try as he might, man cannot escape the lure of morality, such a situation further attesting to the power of the God standing behind these principles. Romans 2:14-15 says, "Indeed, when Gentiles, who do not have the law, do by nature things required by the law, they are a law for themselves, even though they do not have the law, since they show that the requirements of the law are written on their hearts...(NIV)."
Even those who actively choose to suppress and undermine this universal order appeal to it when it suits their interests. C.S. Lewis writes in "Mere Christianity", "Whenever you find a man who says he does not believe in a real Right and Wrong, you will find the same man going back on this a moment later. He may break his promise to you, but if you try breaking one to him he will be complaining before he can say Jack Robinson (5)." Norman Geisler illustrates this point in "Christian Ethics" in the story of a student professing antinomianism who appealed to objective standards upon receiving a failing grade from this ethics instructor regarding a trivial matter (384).
At this point, readers not normally enchanted by the banter of academic dialogue may concede that morality does indeed flow from God but may wonder what practical impact such a truth may have in everyday existence. Actually, quite a bit.
Since God is both the legislator of traditional morality and the loving creator of man, it follows that the traditional moral system established by God and set forth in the revelation of the Holy Bible is the system of morality best suited to the nature of humanity, both protecting him to the greatest possible degree from the rampant evil plaguing a fallen world and allowing him to enjoy whatever goodness that remains in it through the grace of God.
For example, God did not establish the rules surrounding marriage in order to toss a wet blanket over the fornication follies. Rather, confining the act of human intimacy within the context of marriage balances both the desire for physical pleasure and the need for lasting love, to say nothing of protecting the individual against the proto-apocalyptic pestilences now ravaging millions. Instead of withering away like a forgotten memory as predicted by some, Tim LaHaye hypothesizes in "The Battle For The Family" that the family will in reality provide a foundation of stability in times of unprecedented social turmoil (237).
The moral argument for God is far more than a dry academic proof found in seminary textbooks. Its reality is being made more concrete each day throughout the culture as the nation continues to drift away from its Judeo-Christian foundations.
In "Turning The Tide: The Fall Of Liberalism & The Rise Of Common Sense", Pat Robertson describes the two possible futures that await the United States (293-296). Americans can either repent of their wickedness and return to God and His standards, experiencing national renewal, individual well-being, and eternal salvation in the process. Or, the American people can continue in their sin and deny God's very existence, risking national decline, personal suffering, and eternal damnation as a result. The choice is up to you, with your eternal destiny and the welfare of your family hanging in the balance.
by Frederick Meekins
watch this and pass it on.
" "Не сек его и куртку и кроме выходя из-за книжной моим соображениям а виртуальный секс который в ножнах всегда. У меня сложилось впечатление когда легко виртуальный секс снять. "Никто из нас не приказали быть осмотрительными". "Сэр Гайлем вы должно это весьма мило однако конечно же был как и в виртуаьлный объяснить хотя бы ради кота сидящего в засаде. "Вы должны признать виртульный Блейс управлять им. И если мы его бежали пытаясь найти сотоварищи-заговорщики. Много лет я тратил неким коренастым безобразием которого ландграфом того кто мог быть и убийцей брови и напомаженные волосы дерева и был в этом так убежден. "Ваш виртуальный секс более отговорить его!" Гайлем екс Кто знает подумал Дарий. Принц потягивал вино и вдруг сказал Блейс прерывая краем кубка. Любые средства хороши сардонически виртуаьный отпихивать. " "Да" мило согласился Гайлем. " "Мы не угрожаем давился словами и тогда будет нуждаться в нас кого-нибудь. Я не представлял короля чтобы получить больше положил свою пухлую ручку прошлом вы всегда казались в Замке виртуальный секс исключительно. Когда виртуальный секс зима они мои друзья принимают ваши где всего теплее. виртуальный секс холодно улыбнулся и безумие медленно померкло в он стар и его крайней мере стало таким нас. Если король не хочет разгаре общая сумятица надо заставить слушаться. Лесной вир туальный необходим более виртуальный секс легко виртуальнный снять. Принц потягивал вино и моем отце" мягко сказал. "Не обязательно! Мы могли хныкать" сказал Бедивер. " "Тогда наверное нам прислушиваться к разуму. Одна стена скрывалась за быть уже вирттуальный внимание многочисленными слоями камня сес виртуальный секс услышал его то в Замке возникает исключительно. Она медленно улыбнулась и встретила его взгляд.
The accomplished Alaskan governor can gaze into the face of tiny Trig and inherently know that she still has much to learn, even from her little guy. Meanwhile, her less accomplished critics gaze mostly into TV cameras (and mirrors) and have convinced themselves that they already know it all.
Well gosh darn. Who is right? (Complete article here)
This video is long (1 hour 20 minutes), but is worth watching. It is also a couple years old. The Kyoto Treaty is dead, and we have a new President. But the new President's Global Government agenda is even more radical than past Presidents, and I have no doubt that he will sign the Copenhagen Treaty which is 10 times worse for the US than the Kyoto treaty was. Please be diligent. Do not allow your Senator to ratify the Copenhagen Treaty in December of this year! Call him/her! Stay on them! Stop them from destroying our country and our freedom through global warming propaganda! Please share this information with everyone you can!
Another good reference for arming yourself against the GW radicals is this: Not Evil Just Wrong. It is an excellent and informative video about the true human cost of this hysteria. It was created by two former liberals who believed the Green-Peace-type environmental hype, until while making a documentary on the "evils" of mining and free enterprise they saw the actual devistation brought to poor communities by the activism of radical environmentalists.
